Where Do My Miles Go If American Goes Bankrupt?

Is American Airlines headed for bankruptcy? And if it is, should you be worried about losing your frequent flyer miles?

While the answer to the first question is "maybe," the answer to the second is "probably not."

The airline's deteriorating financial situation has been the subject of considerable recent reporting in the business press, and bankruptcy concerns have the company's stock trading at the lowest prices since 2003, falling 33 percent yesterday.

The problems have been a long time coming.

In 2005, several major U.S. airlines declared Chapter 11 and used bankruptcy protection to renegotiate lower wage-and-benefits packages with their unions. American opted to forego bankruptcy and, as a result, today finds itself with higher labor costs than its competitors.

According to Forbes, American's labor costs account for 31 percent of total costs, versus 22 - 23 percent for Delta and United Continental.

Attempts to negotiate new terms with the airline's unions have been unsuccessful.

Even as its costs remain unsustainably high, with no end in sight to the economy's swoon, there's no reason to expect an uptick in travel demand to push American back into profitability.

Chapter 11 - Protection

With no help on the horizon for either the cost or the revenue side of its business, American could be forced to reorganize under protection of Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

In a Chapter 11 scenario, the airline would continue operations more or less as normal while restructuring its debt and labor agreements.

As has been the case with other airlines in Chapter 11, there would be little or no effect on AAdvantage members' ability to earn or redeem their miles.

It's worth remembering that, for a two-week period in 2005, more than 50 percent of the U.S. airline industry's flights were operated by carriers in bankruptcy.

Chapter 7 - Liquidation

If American's problems prove insurmountable and the airline is forced into Chapter 7, liquidation, the AAdvantage program would almost certainly be sold to another major airline -- it's one of the company's most valuable assets. In that case, program members would find themselves and their miles transferred to another program.

For background, when Eastern Air Lines liquidated in 1991, Eastern miles were honored in Continental Airlines' program. In that same year, when Pan Am succumbed, WorldPass members and their miles were folded into Delta's program.

More recently, when TWA called it quits in 2001 after three Chapter 11 filings during 12 consecutive years of losses, 14 million Aviators members and their miles were transferred into American's AAdvantage program.

Members of smaller programs haven't fared as well. When Midway, MGM Grand, National, and Aloha shut down, miles earned in their loyalty programs simply disappeared.

But American's 66 million AAdvantage members would represent an enormous marketing and sales opportunity for the likes of United, Delta, or US Airways. If they, and their miles, were for sale, one of those airlines would happily buy them. AAdvantage members would then find themselves in a new program, with a different name, but with their miles intact.

Reader Reality Check

Do you expect American to declare bankruptcy?

Are you concerned about the fate of your AAdvantage miles?

Other Posts of Interest

• Which Airline Programs Are the Most (and Least) Generous?

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Comments

[Arthur]

If AA miles become DL miles, their value immediately goes down. It's much harder, from FF data, to get 25K round trip coach tix on DL than other airlines, for example.

[Charlotte C]

When TWA went out of business, our miles were transferred to whoever got some of the planes--wasn't it American? Same has happened when other majors took over others. I think that American very well might re-structure, but seriously doubt that they'll be out of the picture. If somebody else should take them over in a bankruptcy filing, I'm pretty confident that my miles will transfer.

[Erik]

When Aloha went out of business, I lost all my miles. No other airline bought them up. As a result, I'd be cautious to suggest that miles wouldn't be lost in the event of American shutting down. However, I am confident American will recover from this and will emerge a stronger airline. Frankly, I think they need to reorganize in order to reduce labor costs so that American can remain competitive.

[Tim Winship]

sasse - Liquidation is nowhere in American's short- to mid-term future, and is very unlikely even longer term. Your Thanksgiving trip is perfectly safe.

[Stephan B. Gleich]

One of American's problems is that its treatment of customers is deplorable. I avoid flying AA if I can avoid it. They used to be my first choice.

Goodbye AA. Maybe your successor will be smarter.

[sasse]

What are the chances that American would liquidate? I have purchased round-trip tickets from SFO to Barbados over Thanksgiving. Would I lose my money? What are my options?

[ARLawrence]

I agree with Tim about AA but with the disclaimer that the airline seems to be trying to cut labor costs by eliminating the wrong people. Go to a major airport, JFK for example, and check the number of employees in the First Class check-in area against the line of customers waiting. Meanwhile, management has paid itself large bonuses for several years running. One of the red flags for stock traders on Monday was news that the pilots were retiring and pulling their pensions out at an unusually high rate. In reality, the company is negotiating with the pilots union and their contract with AA is perhaps the last in the industry that still gives pilots the right to take their entire pension when they leave the company. The writing is on the wall, the pilots are going to lose this benefit with the new contract; I'd retire early as well. In the auto industry, only Ford did not go through a reorganization recently and is well regarded for it. American took a similar route in those bloody airline days of 2005 but may not be as fortunate as Ford.